2.2 Key external pressures for change

All coastlines are naturally dynamic; the Norfolk coastline is especially so, subject to continuous and often rapid change, which is a major part of its special character. The geology and dynamic landforms of the AONB coastline (including submarine features), with its variety and combination of features responding to coastal processes, make it of international scientific importance, in addition to its landscape qualities.

As historical and archaeological records and geological research show, this coastline has been shifting shape for centuries: there are records of many ‘lost villages’ along the cliffs; sediment cores drilled across the North Norfolk Heritage Coast show a succession of alternating intertidal and freshwater habitats; in Roman times the Broads area was a navigable estuary.

Sediment transport processes driven by tides and waves interacting with coastal and undersea geomorphology act on the coastline to change it, eroding in some places and building in others. These processes are large scale, so what happens in the marine and coastal environment well outside the area, as well as along its immediate coastline, needs to be considered in managing its coastline. Coastal defence structures exist along much of the area’s coastline, affecting the natural operation of coastal processes.

The British landmass is still adjusting to the removal of the huge weight of ice sheets over its northern parts during the last Ice Age, by tilting on a north west / south east axis (isostatic readjustment). This is still causing relative sea level rise of around 1-2 mm per year on the Norfolk coastline. Although this has some impact on erosion rates on the cliffed coastline, saltmarshes have easily been able to keep up with this rise through sediment accretion.

The coastline of the AONB can be broadly divided into four main sections of different character:

• South of Hunstanton to the eastern Wash coastline - Mudflats and saltmarsh. Formerly intertidal area defended from flooding by sea walls.

• Hunstanton to Weybourne (North Norfolk Heritage Coast) - Dunes, shingle, sandbanks and mudflats, saltmarsh. Accreting in general but also with areas of erosion. Some formerly intertidal areas defended from flooding by sea walls.
• Weybourne to Bacton - Soft cliffs of glacial material, slumping through ground water action and eroding. Cliffs defended by seawalls and other structures to reduce wave energy, beaches with groynes to reduce sediment movement over much of this section.
• Sea Palling to Winterton-on-Sea - Acidic dunes mostly protected by sea wall and artificial reefs, groynes to reduce sediment movement.

Offshore dredging of aggregates (sand and gravel) and offshore developments also have the potential to affect the coastline through complex interaction with sediment supply and transport systems (as well as potential effects on marine ecosystems and species). The actual effects, including potential cumulative and long-term effects, are difficult to assess in an environment of complex interactions and a lack of data, and often not fully understood or generally agreed.

Current/potential future effects

Effects include:

• Changes to, and interchange between, coastal habitats, with potentially some change of freshwater / terrestrial habitats to intertidal; and
• Erosion and flooding threatening coastal properties and archaeology, and in the long term, settlements and infrastructure (e.g. roads, electricity and gas supply, sewerage, etc).

Approach to management

Understanding and working with, rather than against, the processes that drive coastal change is crucial to effective management of the coastline. These processes are large scale, so what happens in the marine and coastal environment well outside the area needs to be considered in managing its coastline.

Maintaining all parts of the coastline exactly as it is now, at least in the medium to long term, will not be possible, especially under sea level rise scenarios driven by climate change. Moving towards a more naturally functioning coastline will mean adopting a managed approach to protection of, or change to, coastal settlements, roads and other infrastructure. It will also involve finding replacement sites in more sustainable locations for some habitats, particularly coastal freshwater marshes.

Change and adaptation may have considerable socio-economic consequences for any properties, land or businesses affected. Planning for adaptation to coastal change will need to address these issues. Shoreline Management Plans, Local Development Frameworks and associated plans are the means by which this will be achieved.

Summary of approach to management of coastal processes:

Ensure that the predictions of coastal change and its impacts are better understood and inform key decisions that affect the coastal zone. Plan and prepare for managed change which maintains the special qualities of the area in such a way that any negative impacts on coastal communities and habitats can be properly mitigated.

Scientific research and historic records show that global and local climates have changed over geological and shorter timescales, through natural cycles and events. However, there is almost unanimous acceptance in the scientific community that emission of ‘greenhouse gases’, mainly carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels, is now driving rapid global climate change. Although the overall global effect is climate warming, there may be local cooling effects through changes in ocean currents and large scale weather systems.

Predictions of climate change are uncertain and highly variable, depending on future emissions scenarios and geography. The figures used here are derived from the UK Climate Impacts Programme report in 2002. A report containing revised predictions was published in Spring 2009.

• The average ambient temperature is predicted to increase by between 2 to 3.5 degrees Celsius by the 2080s, with associated changes in precipitation patterns. Both changes will be more marked in the south and east of the UK, and the Norfolk Coast can on average expect warmer, drier summers and wetter winters. However, within this context shorter term forecasts are uncertain and weather may not follow these patterns within the five year timescale of the Management Plan;
  
• More erratic weather patterns are also predicted, with increased frequency and severity of storms;
• Sea level rise is caused mainly by thermal expansion (water expands as it warms) but also by melting of land ice (Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and mountain ice caps and glaciers). The seas warm much more slowly than the air - even if global air temperatures stopped rising now, sea temperatures would continue to rise as they ‘caught up’ and sea levels would continue to rise correspondingly for decades or longer; and
• Sea levels rose by about 1mm a year during the 20th century, allowing for isostatic readjustment (see ‘Coastal processes’). The rate for the 1990s and 2000s has been higher than this, and globally sea level rise is currently about 3mm a year. By the end of this century levels may have risen by 30 or 40 cm, but possibly by as much as 80cm.

Current/potential future effects

There are no current clear-cut changes in natural beauty due to local climate change, but it could have significant and difficult to predict effects on:

• Characteristic habitats and species (including Biodiversity Action Plan (BAP) habitats and species, and the marine environment);
• Agricultural landscapes and habitats through changing viability of crops and production methods (e.g. irrigation);
• The local economy and pressures for development, through a changing climate for tourism; and
• Maintenance of historic buildings and archaeological sites (including more frequent flooding).

The sea level rise effects of global climate change greatly magnify and accelerate the effects of coastal processes. Whereas it might be possible, if not necessarily desirable from all perspectives, to maintain and even extend sea defences in some places for a considerable period into the future under the historic scenario, this will not be viable with rapid sea level rise.

This will cause additional and increasing problems in maintaining sea defences in their current position, giving rise to threats to coastal settlements, archaeology and buildings (including some of architectural/historical value). It also threatens to damage or destroy characteristic and designated coastal habitats, although it could also lead to the creation of other valuable and characteristic habitats at the same time.

Approach to management

Every measure, however small, taken to address the contributions to climate change will help affect the global picture, and the Norfolk Coast Partnership should be seen to lead by example in reducing emissions of greenhouse gases in the area. However, the control of greenhouse gases is a global issue that requires action from all countries, so reducing greenhouse gas emissions locally, although important, is not an effective option in terms of managing the local effects of climate change.

There is still much uncertainty about local changes in climate and their potential impacts on the area’s natural beauty. The main focus of this plan should therefore be the prediction of local impacts and local adaptation to address these.

Summary of approach to management of climate change:

Improve understanding of potential changes and impacts.
Plan and prepare for local adaptation to the effects of climate change.
Undertake suitable adaptation measures to reduce any negative future effects of climate change.

The latest available estimate of the population of the AONB (i.e. within or on the boundary) is 18,109 (Norfolk County Council / Office of National Census 2004), which has decreased very slightly from the 2001 census figure of 18,184, with Wells-next-the Sea the largest settlement within the AONB at 2,454. There are several settlements on or just outside the boundary, the total population of which is estimated at just over 46,000, which have increased by about 600 in total since 2001 (excluding King’s Lynn at about 35,260).

Although there is little incentive for building under current economic conditions, there is pressure in the medium to longer term for housing development from national and regional targets and market forces. The minimum housing targets from the East of England Plan (2008) for the relevant districts for 2001-21 are:

• North Norfolk – 8,000 (of which 1,720 built to March 2006);
  
• King’s Lynn and West Norfolk – 12,000 (of which 2,540 built to March 2006); and
  
• Great Yarmouth – 6,000 (of which 1,190 built to March 2006).

New housing provision has potential benefits for the local economy and viability of services and there is a need for ‘affordable housing’ to enable people working in local jobs, at least some of which contribute to maintaining the area’s natural beauty, to live in the area.

Although the population of the area is currently stable and not expected to increase significantly, that of settlements near its boundary and near enough for a short visit may well do. National targets for large numbers of new homes to cope with population and demographic changes have led to very significant housing development allocations regionally – minimum targets from the East of England Plan (2008) for new houses from 2001 to 2021 are 78,700 for Norfolk (of which 16,360 built to March 2006), and 508,000 for the region (of which 105,550 built to March 2006). The population in the wider catchment area of day visit potential is increasing, and set to increase very significantly over the next decade or so. The figures include large increases at identified ‘growth points’ and ‘key centres for development and change’ not far from the area - around Norwich (33,000), Great Yarmouth (6,000), Thetford (6,000), King’s Lynn (7,000), Peterborough (25,000) and Cambridge (19,000).

Although there may not be major changes over the next 5 years, potential impacts and plans for mitigation need to be considered within the time frame of this plan.

Current/potential future effects

Relatively few new houses are likely to be built in the area, but even low numbers of new houses in a sparsely populated area such as the AONB can have impacts on the character of existing settlements and the landscape character of a wider area as well as associated environmental impacts such as:

• Water resources and effects on natural features dependant on these;
• Capacity of sewerage and sewage treatment systems and consequent water quality;
• Transport infrastructure and traffic;
• Light pollution; and
• The tranquillity of the area.

Housing targets also contribute to pressures for expansion of some of the larger settlements on the AONB boundaries, particularly where areas for expansion are limited by the coastline and other factors, and some incursions into the AONB have already taken place. Even new housing outside the AONB boundary can have visual impacts as well as some indirect effects, as noted above.

It can be difficult to finance affordable housing provision without subsidy as part of a commercial housing development, which can lead to development pressures beyond the housing actually required in the area.

In the longer term, it may be necessary to plan for at least some coastal settlements to ‘roll back’ or to relocate inland in order to maintain living, working communities on the coast as the coastline changes (see the ‘Coastal processes’ and ‘Climate change’ sections above). This may mean planning to build on areas that have previously been outside the settlement development envelope, and in some cases allowing settlements that are currently ‘hemmed in’ by the AONB boundary to roll back into the AONB.

Tourism-related development, including services and provisions for the local tourism industry and diversification of farming enterprises into visitor-related economic activities, can have a significant impact, especially on the undeveloped coast. Its management needs to take account of the special landscape qualities of the area whilst providing for the sustainable development of the tourism industry.

There are also pressures for new forms of development in the countryside and apparent conflict, in some cases, between government and other guidance and AONB protection. Current examples are telecommunications masts and wind turbines and there may be others, unforeseen at present, in the future. Some of these may bring economic benefits, but there will be an impact on the existing landscape - we need to decide what forms of development are or can be compatible with AONB designation and how these can best be accommodated.

An increase in visitor numbers driven by local and regional housing development could potentially have impacts on some sensitive habitats and species, some of which are already experiencing pressures from recreation (for example there is good evidence that shingle-nesting ringed plovers are already seriously affected). It could also bring an increase in traffic levels and associated impacts.

Approach to management

Although the level of control available to partner organisations over national and even regional policy is limited, there is generally good control of the location and type of most local development available to partner organisations through Local Development Frameworks and development control policies and practice operated by local planning authorities. The effective and co-ordinated operation of planning within the AONB is therefore a key means of managing development pressures.

Some forms of development are not controlled by local planning authorities (e.g. offshore wind farms, or land based wind farms over a certain size, where planning authorities are consultees only) or are permitted development with only limited control available to planning authorities (e.g. telephone, electricity supply and water supply infrastructure). In these cases it may be necessary to consider developing consistent, justified and realistic positions on which to base agreement with development bodies and consideration of individual proposals.

Summary of approach to management of development pressures:

Manage development to conserve and enhance natural beauty through the local planning system, achieving a consistent and co-ordinated approach across the area by using the Integrated Landscape Character Guidance for the area.

Develop a consistent and co-ordinated approach to influencing development issues outside local control that have potential impacts on the area’s natural beauty.

Global market forces exert a powerful influence that may affect several aspects of the area’s natural beauty directly or indirectly, mainly through impacts on the land and sea based economies, and commodity and property prices. The national and global financial crises that developed in the second half of 2008, including the reduction in the exchange rate of the pound against many currencies, are likely to have at least temporary effects on the area’s economy although exactly what these may be and how they may impact on natural beauty is not clear at present.

Changes in national and international policy on coastline management have been brought about by recognition of the rationale outlined previously - see the ‘Coastal processes’ and ‘Climate change’ sections above.

Current/potential future effects

Current and potential effects are specific and therefore outlined in the relevant theme sections.

Approach to management

Local partners have some limited potential for influencing national policy in some cases (e.g. coastal change adaptation) but in general the best available option is to plan for local adaptation to resultant initiatives, where possible.

Summary of approach to management of global market forces and policy:

Co-ordinate approach to influencing national and international policy where practical.
Develop local plans for adaptation to policy initiatives, where possible.